Closing the CDR demand gap

The voluntary carbon market risks stagnation

Closing the CDR demand gap

The voluntary carbon market risks stagnation

Closing the CDR demand gap

The voluntary carbon market risks stagnation

Carbon removal growth gap: 2% actual vs. 30% needed

Carbon removal growth gap: 2% actual vs. 30% needed

2050

GROWTH RATES

ONLY SCENARIO THAT

MEETS LONG-TERM

TARGETS

ONLY SCENARIO THAT

MEETS LONG-TERM

TARGETS

2025

2%

10%

20%

30%

8 Mt

8 Mt

5932 Mt

5932 Mt

802 Mt

802 Mt

14 Mt

14 Mt

91 Mt

91 Mt

2050

GROWTH RATES

ONLY SCENARIO THAT

MEETS LONG-TERM

TARGETS

2025

2%

10%

20%

30%

8 Mt

5932 Mt

802 Mt

14 Mt

91 Mt

Carbon removal growth gap: 2% actual vs. 30% needed

2025 was a year of hesitation. 2026 must be different, or the market will fail to deliver the gigatonne-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) climate goals require.

2025 was a year of hesitation. 2026 must be different, or the market will fail to deliver the gigatonne-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) climate goals require.

2025 was a year of hesitation. 2026 must be different, or the market will fail to deliver the gigatonne-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) climate goals require.

Image: Carbon dioxide removal retirements in Mt, under different growth rates. Note: Mt = megatonne. Source: Carbon Direct.

Essential intelligence for climate decision-makers

Corporate buyers

Corporate buyers

Corporate buyers

Benchmark your purchasing strategy against leading buyers in the market

Compare action-led versus target-led demand scenarios through 2030

CDR project developers

CDR project developers

CDR project developers

Master the contract structures that unlock lower-cost project finance

Identify which pathways have sufficient committed demand to build

Investors

Investors

Investors

Identify which CDR pathways face the greatest capital urgency

Assess the "valley of death" risk threatening high-durability CDR projects

Policy makers

Policy makers

Policy makers

Explore why regulatory delays carry mounting consequences

Compare compliance versus voluntary market dynamics and trajectories

7%

7%

decrease

decrease

CDR retirements grew just 2% in 2025, but need 30% annual growth to approach climate-aligned pathways by 2050.

CDR retirements grew just 2% in 2025, but need 30% annual growth to approach climate-aligned pathways by 2050.

>80%

>80%

at risk

at risk

Most planned high-durability CDR capacity won't come online without additional offtake and financing commitments.

Most planned high-durability CDR capacity won't come online without additional offtake and financing commitments.

70%

70%

concentration

concentration

Microsoft accounts for 70% of all CDR offtakes announced to date. The market desperately needs diversification.

Microsoft accounts for 70% of all CDR offtakes announced to date. The market desperately needs diversification.

Five actions buyers must take now

  1. Use purchasing power wisely 

  2. Prioritize project diligence

  3. Construct bankable contracts

  4. Support market data transparency and CDR goals 

  5. Undertake project assurance

Inside the report

Supply risk analysis

Why over 80% of high-durability CDR capacity is at risk of not being realized without additional offtake

Demand forecasting

Three scenarios for what the market looks like by 2030

Offtake strategies

Best practices for structuring bankable contracts

Market data

Analysis of 288 million tonnes of credits across five major registries

Capital gaps

Where the $18 billion financing shortage exists across CDR pathways

Download the full report

36 pages, 13 data visualizations, 288 million tonnes analyzed

By the scientists at Carbon Direct | February 2026